A Jobless Future?

Originally published on 29 March 2016. Republished with minor corrections and added source links; the argument is unchanged.

The fear of a jobless society

The rise of robotics creates many opportunities for a safe, clean and efficient world. But it also creates the fear of a jobless society. Many jobs are at risk. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne (2013) gave an overview of jobs and how probable it is that they will disappear, putting roughly 47% of total US employment in the at-risk category. If you go through the list, you can indeed fear the jobless society.

If you look at the jobs that are unlikely to disappear, one thing is clear:

• they are not the high-volume jobs
• they require trust and a personal touch
• they require creativity

And that is not a surprise. In our attention economy we will not automate those jobs that touch who we are. You could automate psychotherapy, but we do not want it. [2026: this is the one prediction that did not hold.] We still want a doctor present during surgery. We do not want to hand our children to a robot. Unless robots can develop human characteristics like empathy, fairness, kindness and reciprocity, we will keep a separation between us and them.

Humans are also still better at certain things than robots are. But let us not be complacent. Technologies evolve fast, and we will see the birth of a humanoid robot that can integrate into society without problems. For some that is frightening; for others it opens a world of opportunities.

New jobs are coming

There will also be new jobs. These new jobs have not so much to do with robotics alone, but also with societal evolutions.

Thomas Frey (2014) listed 162 new jobs. Some of them are a variation on the same theme. But the list points to a new set of skills: change, optimisation, analysis, dismantling, feedback and learning, problem-solving, ethics and philosophy. We will need people with those skills across the environment, the internet of things, mobility, city design, water management, the sharing economy, self-development, robotics and drones, 3D printing, wearables, data exploitation, new currency management, energy, biotechnology, the ageing population and innovation.

But this strikes me.

• Most of the new jobs are cognitive. The less cognitive and more operational jobs are easily automated. We need to maximise cognitive development.
• These jobs are either policy driven or project-based. They are not necessarily routine enough to create long-term employment. People will need to be able to repackage their skills according to the demand for talent.
• These jobs seem to be ephemeral. People will need to reinvent themselves as society and technology evolve. This demands highly developed learning skills.
• We are leaving "proven technology" behind. People will need to be open to taking risks. These jobs demand entrepreneurial skills.

Review the list above. What do we have to fear? We have to fear a binary talent market. On the one hand there will be the high-end jobs that pay well and give a window to the future. On the other hand we will see a growing number of low-end jobs.

Rethink the talent market

This evolution is not new. We see it already. And it becomes a risk if we do not correct the talent market.

The future talent market will be one with less fixed employment. People will negotiate directly with whoever offers the work. People will be hired for a job, a project, an assignment. A career will be a quilt of jobs.

You might think this is just wishful thinking. Some people fear an Uberisation of the labour market. Some regret the evolution altogether. That may be so. But one thing I know: the talent market of the future will be more volatile, less protected, more competitive and more uncertain. We can regret that, or we can do something.

Here are some suggestions to make sure we have a talent market that is ready for the future:

• Open up the education system. People need to learn skills that are future-proof. They need to be constantly introduced to new technologies and new insights. They have to learn to be critical and creative. They need to learn to think for themselves, and to gather and analyse data.
• Encourage job mobility. A Securex research report shows that attrition is going down. That is a problem. In order to survive in the "jobless" market of tomorrow, people need to change jobs. Mobility is an answer to tomorrow's challenges.
• Build breaks into a career. Doing the same thing all your life is not an option. Some would call this a portfolio approach. People should not bet their future on a single job — and let us enable them to experience that as early as possible.
• Make hybrid careers possible. People should combine tasks. This can happen within a company, but employers can also encourage people to take a side job to acquire different skills.
• Keep sufficient regulation in the talent market. Germany's introduction of a statutory minimum wage in 2015, and the wage floors raised in the UK and in several US states, are examples of how to correct the talent market.

The future is not jobless

I do not share the pessimism that our future will be jobless. We face so many societal challenges that we will need people to do the work. We will, however, see a shift in the nature and quality of jobs — if we still call them that. And we had better be prepared.

Our biggest competitors will not be an army of robots, but the people who have acquired the future-proof skills.

Let's discuss.